ColombiaEconomíaMonedas virtuales

¿Qué hay detrás de la volatilidad del bitcoin?

Transacciones demoradas y costosas en la red del bitcoin, agrupadas en bloques que a su vez forman cadenas (blockchain), tienen en debate a propietarios y mineros (quienes realizan y validan operaciones) de la criptomoneda.

Ayer, alcanzó un máximo histórico de 7.865,35 dólares, precio registrado a las 1:35 p.m., luego de que se dieran a conocer los rumores de una actualización del software.

Dos propuestas destacan para impulsar la capacidad de transacción: “desde que se diseñó la tecnología, se detectó que el tamaño del bloque de un megabyte era demasiado restrictivo”, mencionó el director de la consultora Investopi, Marcelo Granada.

La primera consiste en un nuevo hard fork, que en resumen es la bifurcación de uno de los bloques que componen la red, lo que resultaría en la creación de una nueva versión de bitcoin, como sucedió con la aparición de bitcoin cash, en agosto de 2017, y, más recientemente, el bitcoin gold.

Estas derivaciones permiten hacer uso de bloques de un mayor tamaño (hasta dos megabytes) y desdoblaron cada unidad, es decir, que si un propietario tenía una bitcoin legacy o core (la criptomoneda original) obtenía un clon de bitcoin cash y gold. La última, si bien se lanzó aún no funciona de manera diferencial.

Según el diseño de la criptomoneda solo se puede procesar hasta un megabyte aproximadamente cada 10 minutos, “como una medida para evitar que se llene despam”, precisó el fundador de Bitcoin Colombia, Carlos Mesa. Esto quiere decir que le quita espacio a las transacciones.

La última propuesta de bifurcación fue la activación del segwit2x, que fue aplazada, por falta de consenso entre los usuarios del sistema, y se espera la llegada a un acuerdo, por lo menos del 95 % para que se pueda implementar, indicó el CEO de SurBTC Colombia, Alejando Beltrán Torrado.

La principal característica de los precios del bitcoin es su alta volatilidad, pues se mueve al ritmo de la oferta (con un límite de emisión de 21 millones) y la demanda (que aumenta constantemente). (ver Informe).

Por ejemplo, el 2 de enero la moneda estuvo en 1.025,88 dólares, con un valor de mercado de 16.494 millones de dólares, mientras que el 15 de noviembre, alcanzó los 7.723,83 dólares, con 128.869 millones.

El 15 de septiembre, bajó hasta 3.387,13 dólares, luego de que las autoridades chinas ordenaran a los mercados de criptomonedas en Beijing poner fin a esas operaciones. Su impacto fue fuerte porque ese es el país en el que se fabrica el hardware Asic, por lo que la minería y las máquinas están centralizadas allí.

El 25 de octubre, la criptomoneda cayó a 5.400,03 dólares, con respecto a solo dos días antes, por el bitcoin gold. El 23 estaba en 6.021,49 dólares.

El factor especulativo, según Beltrán Torrado, no es el único que explica la fluctuación de precios; también, la actualización tecnológica, que implica más divisiones.

En esto también hay un juego de poder. Hay algunos que ya están tratando de hacer el hard fork, “todo dependerá de como responda el mercado, porque los mineros no son los dueños de la red”, explicó el CEO de SurBTC Colombia, pues algunos de los últimos no comparten esa solución. Desde China, se hace fuerza, “como si fueran partidos políticos” para que no se implemente otro split.

Finalmente, no se puede olvidar que el valor de una criptomoneda depende “de la confianza que los participantes tengan sobre la calidad presente y futura de sus atributos para ser ampliamente aceptadas como medio de pago, depósito de valor y unidad de cuenta frente a otras alternativas similares”, según el Documento Técnico Criptomonedas de los analistas Carlos Arango-Arango y Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez, publicado por el Banco de la República.

Referencia www.elcolombiano.com : http://www.elcolombiano.com/negocios/lo-que-hay-detras-de-la-volatilidad-del-bitcoin-IX7716219

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